Analysts warn that the idea of a ‘Trump put’ may be dead after losses on Wall Street, as US dollar hits lowest since last November’s election
Swiss bank UBS has warned there is an increased risk that the US economy suffers a downturn, hitting stock markets.
UBS has updated its House View scenario, and now sees a 30% chance of a “stagflationary or cyclical downturn” in the US, up from 25% at the end of last month.
“In our base case, to which we attach a 50% probability, US economic growth is likely to moderate compared with last year but remain positive.
While we treat the economic data and the words of the Trump administration seriously, enacting and sustaining policies which contribute to a potentially protracted slowdown in the US economy in hope of better growth or economic dynamics in the medium to long term would require a shift from an approach which has so far focused on achieving quick success.”
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